Janarajkarana | The year of democratic pluralism
Looking at 2024 from the perspective of electoral politics, one thing is certain. That is, the outcome of every election was uncertain! The voters of the country said in the elections what the benefits of plurality are. At the end of 2023, the BJP had won a hat-trick of victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and entered 2024 with confidence.
The BJP had the confidence (some say too much confidence) to carry the chariot of victory forward. But the year 2024 is not ending with such enthusiasm. The NDA alliance has won some important seats. The 'India' alliance has the satisfaction of retaining power in the state of Jharkhand. But in other places, it has lost its winning streak.
All parties had started campaigning for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with great enthusiasm. The BJP-led NDA was counting on the BJP's increase in numbers in Parliament to secure a third consecutive term with a large majority. Meanwhile, the Congress party, though not a strong one, played a key role in keeping the 'India' alliance together amidst many setbacks and defections. The BJP's election plan was carefully prepared. The BJP had estimated that it would get more than 370 seats in the Lok Sabha, while the NDA would get more than 400 seats.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the strength of the parties other than the BJP in the NDA alliance was 50 seats. But this time, the BJP had estimated that the strength of the allies would be around 30. The BJP relied heavily on the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He was the centerpiece of the election campaign. In order to create an image that it had never lost, the NDA had announced that it would win more than 400 seats. The aim of setting a target of winning more than 400 seats was also to surpass the achievement of the Congress party in 1984 under the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi.
Although the Congress was a key partner in the 'India' alliance, it was not a dominant force. After suffering setbacks in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the Congress did not have much bargaining power with its allies. There were some changes in the 'India' alliance. The JD(U) joined the NDA, the TMC identified with 'India' when it wanted and stayed away when it did not. The only thing that held all the parties together was their opposition to the BJP. In key states like West Bengal and Punjab, the parties in the 'India' alliance could not come to a consensus and fought against each other.
The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections provided yet another testament to the wisdom and erudition of the country’s voters. After a decade, we returned to a situation where no party had a clear majority. The BJP could only celebrate that the NDA alliance had won a majority. The 'India' alliance’s numerical strength increased. The country finally had an official opposition party after a decade.
The main reason why the BJP, which had 303 seats in the previous Lok Sabha, fell to 240 seats in this Lok Sabha is because of the decrease in seats in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Uttar Pradesh itself saw a decrease of 29 seats. However, due to the party's good performance in Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the party’s seats did not fall below 240. The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections appear to be a 'plurality gain' given by the voters to various political parties. The results recorded in neighboring states were very different. The states of the country emerged as new centers of national politics.
What happened in the Lok Sabha elections continued in the assembly elections. The Congress party’s overconfidence led to its defeat in one assembly election. (In Haryana) the over-prioritization of Jat votes resulted in the non-Jat communities rallying for the BJP, while the Jat votes rallied to the Congress to a limited extent. Also, the Congress party paid the price for infighting, while the BJP benefited from a silent grassroots campaign.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference party won through an alliance with the Congress. However, there was a clear gap between the results in the Jammu region and the Kashmir Valley. The BJP performed well in the Jammu region. But the Congress party did not succeed in making its presence felt here. The National Conference party performed well in the Kashmir region.
After the formation of a new government led by the National Conference in Jammu and Kashmir, the government tried to negotiate with the central government to restore the state’s status there. There seems to be a hitch in the relationship between the Congress and the National Conference there, because the Congress party is not part of the government there.
The year is ending with the assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance has returned to power in Maharashtra with a majority. The opposition’s 'Maha Vikas Aghadi' has been defeated. The three parties in the Aghadi, the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, have performed very poorly. This has given the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance a huge majority.
The electoral battle in Jharkhand was about support in tribal-dominated areas and other areas. The 'India' alliance performed well by strengthening its presence in tribal-dominated areas and expanding its reach in other areas. The JMM’s alliance with the Congress, RJD and the Communist parties came in handy here. Although the BJP was successful in retaining its foothold in areas where tribal communities were not dominant, it could not seriously damage the JMM’s support base in tribal-dominated areas. Also, the welfare schemes launched by the JMM-led government came in handy for the 'India' alliance.
Overall, this year saw many unexpected changes. The pluralism of India’s democracy was evident in 2024.