Janarajkarana | The last stage: What do you see?
The last phase of voting for the Lok Sabha elections is today (June 1). Seven-phase elections are nothing new. The elections were held in a similar manner in 2019 as well. What is new is the long gap of six weeks between the first and last phase of voting. Last time, there was a gap of five weeks. A kind of fatigue can be seen among political parties, leaders, candidates and voters. The election campaigning process began in early April and ended by the end of May. Thus, the entire two months of election campaigning were hectic.
As the election campaign began and the voting process entered its final stages, a clear change was evident. Before the campaign began, there was little excitement in this election, as there was little discussion about who would win. There was much discussion about how many seats could be won. But as the campaign began, it became clear that the competition was getting fiercer. Such fierce competition was not only seen in states where there was a direct contest between the two main parties; the competition was also fierce in states where there was a multi-cornered contest. The nature and shape of the contest also seemed to vary from state to state.
The low turnout in each phase of the election was also a focus of the campaign discussions. We now have to wait for the figures for the seventh phase to understand whether the trend of the first six phases will continue. Two points are important to highlight here. First, the turnout this time is being compared, especially with the turnout in the 2019 elections. The main thing to note is that the 2019 elections were a special election that saw a high turnout. The turnout this time seems to be on par with many previous elections. Second, if we look at some key constituencies where the competition is fierce, the turnout in those constituencies is the same as in 2019 or in some cases even higher.
As the election campaign progressed, it became clear that there was no single national wave that stood out. There may be winds of change (of varying intensity) in different states. The impact and implications of this will only be known on June 4th.
The BJP-led NDA had a clear and well-defined campaign model. It was replicated across the country. There was a conscious, visible focus on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his leadership. Thus, NDA candidates across the country stressed that voters were voting not for them personally but to make Modi the Prime Minister for a third term. The ruling party leaders felt that this strategy would also sideline issues that could embarrass the alliance. This time, discontent in the BJP was on a large scale and openly. Never before had there been such a level of discontent. Many factors contributed to this discontent, including the replacement of about a hundred candidates, including some who had been MPs for three or four terms.
To divert attention from such challenges, it was thought that making Prime Minister Narendra Modi the focus of the campaign was the best way. After the first phase of voting, the focus and content of the BJP campaign completely changed. After the Congress released its manifesto, it found an excuse to intensify its criticism of its rival. The direct result of this was that the BJP started responding to the Congress agenda instead of initiating the conversation itself.
The non-NDA parties in power in various states adopted a strategy of contesting elections on local issues. Thus, they tried to convince the voters to vote for those who would effectively represent them at the Centre by highlighting the achievements of their governments and selecting candidates from the ruling party or alliances in the states. The elections witnessed a clash between the national narrative that the BJP tried to frame and the local narrative that the opposition parties tried to frame.
The BJP is aiming to retain a majority of seats in the north, west and central parts of India (as it has in the past). The BJP faces some serious challenges in Haryana, Delhi and Maharashtra. There are also questions about whether it can win in Rajasthan and Gujarat.
The BJP is also hoping to win a few more seats in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand than it did last time. The results in Maharashtra, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have the potential to tip the balance.
In Maharashtra, the two factions of Shiv Sena and NCP are yet to be tested by the polls. Therefore, this election will show which faction has more popular support. That factor will also influence the seats they win. In Bihar, the BJP and RJD seem to have prevailed. The JD(U) seems to be facing a serious challenge. The BJP hopes to improve its chances of winning in this Hindi heartland by winning more seats in Uttar Pradesh. But the competition here too is fierce.
There is also a lot of discussion about what is happening in the southern states. It is difficult for the BJP to maintain its 2019 results in Karnataka. The argument is being heard that what was lost in Karnataka can be made up in Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Since there is no sign of much change in the northeastern states, the election results in West Bengal and Odisha will also be important this time from a numerical point of view. The curiosity is indeed increasing. But, we have to wait until June 4.