20 months and three principles
The Congress-led government in the state will complete 20 months in the first month of the new year. That is, one-third of the total 60-month (5-year) tenure will have been completed. The next 20 months will be a crucial phase in the evaluation of the government. Previous governments led by different parties seem to have stumbled in the second 20 months of their tenure. There was a lack of rhythm in governance and a lack of focus on priorities. It was very difficult for those governments to recover from the failures at this stage. This explains why no party has been able to win a majority for a second consecutive term in Karnataka since 1985.
Three principles define and decide the success of a state government. Efficiency in administration, unity in the ruling party and harmony in society are those three principles. When we examine the work of previous governments, we see the failure to follow these three principles or at least two of the three. In the current context, all these three principles need to be analyzed.
There are many instances across the country where a party-led government is seen to have returned to power when voters feel that it has performed reasonably well on key governance indicators. A post-election study by Lokaniti in Karnataka after the Lok Sabha elections found that the Congress party won 9 seats in Karnataka in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the people’s perception of the implementation of the guarantee schemes of the Congress-led government there played a role. This is also indicated by the fact that women voters voted for the Congress in large numbers. The fact that the ruling Congress party won all the seats in the by-elections to the assembly, among other important factors, shows the people’s perception of the guarantee schemes implemented. That is, a government that prioritizes responding to the aspirations of different sections of society is sure to succeed.
When the government and its leaders are accused of scandals and controversies, people's attention shifts to that side. This is linked to the focus on efficiency in governance. In the past, this has shifted the focus from governance to dousing the fires created by a series of controversies. The current government in Karnataka faces a similar challenge. Will it be able to overcome the allegations of abuse of power in the next 20 months or will the developments related to these allegations further tarnish the government's reputation?
There is another very important factor that derailed the cart of parties that were in power in the past. That is unity within the ruling party. There are instances of winning elections on the basis of unity within the party. If there had been continuous infighting within the ruling party, the voters would have ousted that party from power. The Congress party had faced the 2013 {2023} assembly elections in the state with unity. The party, which had kept aside the question of who would become the Chief Minister, had followed the formula of coming to power first and then taking up the question of who would be the Chief Minister. The lack of unity in the BJP, the party that was in power at that time, was clearly visible during the assembly elections.
After winning the elections, the Congress party settled the leadership issue by forging a consensus between the two leaders. But internal differences are coming to light from time to time. The hidden fistfights between the leaders' supporters are evident. The party high command has often had to intervene to put an end to the internal squabbles. However, the fact that internal differences are severe even in the state BJP unit has played a role in the ruling Congress in the state.
The next 20 months will be crucial for both the ruling party and the main opposition. It will be crucial to see who can overcome the internal strife and challenge their opponents with unity. Past experience has shown that if internal strife continues, the party will suffer setbacks. Maintaining stability at the leadership level will be crucial. Similarly, those in leadership positions will have to demonstrate continuity in policies.
The last principle is to maintain harmony in society. Harmony is possible due to many factors. Social harmony is related to law and order, safety of women, religious harmony in society, friendly atmosphere among different caste groups at the local level and keeping various social divisions and grievances under control. If social harmony is to be possible, the party in power has to come one step ahead and work. It has to work to build trust among the various stakeholders of the society. The leaders of that party have to act like diplomats.
Voters will be watching to see whether all these qualities are evident in the next 20 months. If there is a lapse in these tasks, public confidence may be undermined. Finally, the mantra of success must be revisited: efficiency in governance, unity in the ruling party and harmony in society. The next 20 months will be very important in this regard.
