Bihar leaders face youth test
One of the largest youth electorates is looking keenly at the promises being made by the three main players in Bihar. They have all grown up during Nitish Kumar’s reign as chief minister and are increasingly aspirational. Though they feel a strong sense of anti-incumbency, they want leaders who can deliver
With the Bihar election campaign gaining steam, the spotlight is increasingly focused on three key factors—the caste calculus, alliance chemistry and women’s vote—that past elections have highlighted. Yet another issue gaining ascendancy this time is the role of the state’s young voters. Youth across South Asia have been at the forefront of change in recent times. Will they be a decisive factor in Bihar too? And whose electoral fortunes are they most likely to affect?
At the start, it may be useful to elaborate on the significant presence of youth in Bihar. There are varying reports on the numbers. Many times, the percentage of youth in the total population is given, while at others, their share in the electorate is considered.
A recent release of cohort-wise elector information projected that the 18-29 cohort constituted almost a fourth of the total electors in the state as on January 1, 2024. If every one in four voters are from this age segment, their impact would be significant as well as strategic. Further, the youth variable remains crucial in all the three factors mentioned earlier—caste calculations, alliance support and women’s vote.
Studies done in the late 1990s and the 2000s indicated that the youth vote in India went more or less in the same direction as that of older voters. Unlike in some Western democracies, one did not see too much variation.
This trend appeared to change in the 2010s. Several studies that focused on the political attitudes and perceptions of the youth in this period indicated there has been a visible change in their political attitudes, aspirations and perceptions. This could be linked to their increasing numbers, greater access to education, and changing power dynamics within families. Bihar seems to be no exception.
The way the three major players in the state—the NDA, Mahagathbandhan and Jan Suraaj Party—have been focusing on the youth vote is indicative of their capacity to tilt seats. The ruling NDA banks on the charisma of the prime minister and the promise to industrialise Bihar, increase employment opportunities, and prioritise law and order.
The fact that Nitish Kumar has been chief minister for little less than two decades—save for the nine months between May 2014 and February 2015—those aged 18-29 were either born after he became CM or were socialised during this time. This explains the anti-incumbency sentiment against the CM.
However, this outlook may not translate into unhappiness with the NDA itself. This helps understand why the BJP seems to be at the forefront of the campaign and Nitish has fallen in line. A recent study by Vote Vibe estimated that the broader NDA coalition’s support is compensating for anti-incumbency against Nitish. The study also showed that the youth among those who strongly feel the anti-incumbency sentiment. Yet, the intensity of unhappiness among the youth is less visible when it comes to the NDA.
The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, is making a strong pitch for local employment opportunities. The decade after the 2011 census, which showed about 61 percent literacy in Bihar, has seen greater access to higher education and a resultant rise in aspirations among the youth.
Today, they seek quality education and meaningful employment within the state. A 2024 International Labour Organization study had indicated that about a fourth of those who migrate to other states do so mainly for employment opportunities.
Amid this, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign focuses on the younger generation, with a strong focus on job guarantees. One is not sure whether the squabbling over ticket distribution within the Mahagathbandhan will frustrate the younger generations, who want ‘a government that performs and not merely promises’.
The impact of Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party will be clearer as the campaign unfolds. In the past, a lot of survey respondents indicated that they decide their votes once the candidates are announced and the campaign is rolled out. The youth have clearly been impressed by Kishor’s agenda, but it is still unclear whether that fascination will translate into votes. Studies have also indicated Jan Suraaj may well cut into both the NDA’s and the Mahagathbandhan’s vote shares.
It’s important to note that the youth voter of Bihar is difficult to win over. He has been increasingly frustrated by the absence of attractive job opportunities in the state and continues to desire a government job. At another level, young people aspire for education and skills that will make them more employable, something missing in their state.
These are also generations that will not be gullible to tall assurances and would prefer to go by actions on the ground. So Bihar is a litmus test for not just the promises made, but the youth’s belief in the intention and capability of the one making the promise. This factor will be a key deciding dynamic in the coming polls.
Sandeep Shastri | Vice President, Nitte (Deemed) University, Bengaluru, and co-author of Indian Youth in a Transforming World
Updated on:
23 Oct 2025, 12:00 am
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