The youth in the valley
The first two phases of polling for the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections have been completed, and the third and final phase will be held on October 1. This is the first assembly election held here since 2014. This means that the voters of Jammu and Kashmir are exercising their right to elect a new government after a gap of a decade.
The political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir has undergone significant changes in the last ten years. The special status granted under Article 370 of the Constitution has been revoked. This major decision was taken by the BJP-led central government in 2019. In addition, the state has been divided into two union territories – Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir.
The BJP has promised that Jammu and Kashmir will be given statehood in the future. Some regional parties want the special status to be restored. The Congress party’s position is that the decision to revoke the special status was right, but the process followed for it was not transparent.
The assembly elections are being held here a few months after the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP, which contested two seats in the Jammu region in the Lok Sabha elections, won both. The National Conference (NC) won two of the three seats in the Kashmir region. An independent candidate won one seat. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) was unable to open its account.
Prominent leaders of NC and PDP, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, are embittered in the Lok Sabha elections. Independent candidate Abdul Rashid Sheikh (Engineer Rashid) defeated Omar by over two lakh votes. Rashid had contested the elections from jail. Mehbooba was defeated by the National Conference candidate by over 2.80 lakh votes.
Taking into account the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the National Conference is leading in 36 of the 90 assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir. Its ally Congress is ahead in seven seats. Together, the two parties are leading in 43 seats, bringing the total strength close to a simple majority. The BJP is leading in 29 and the PDP in seven assembly seats. Independent candidates and others are leading in the remaining 13 seats. Compared to the 2014 assembly elections, the National Conference and the BJP have increased their strength in this Lok Sabha election. But the strength of the Congress and the PDP has declined sharply.
The ongoing assembly elections have generated a lot of interest both within the country and internationally for many reasons. Since the elections are being held after a decade, a whole new generation of people are eligible to vote for the first time. People between the ages of 18 and 28 are voting in the assembly elections for the first time.
This is also the first election after the abrogation of the special status granted under Article 370 and the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories. These major changes and developments in Jammu and Kashmir after its bifurcation may be reflected in the verdict given by the people. The current elections in Jammu and Kashmir are significant for three reasons.
The first is the turnout. Many see this election as a barometer of how people are responding to the democratic process. The return of the right to vote after a gap of a decade in assembly elections certainly generates interest. This enthusiasm was evident in the first phase of voting, which saw a 61 per cent turnout. According to the Election Commission, the second phase saw a 57 per cent turnout.
The 2014 assembly elections saw a 65% voter turnout despite calls for a boycott. The turnout in the first two phases of this election is slightly lower than that recorded in 2014. However, the enthusiasm shown by the voters here in an election held after a decade cannot be underestimated. It is also important to note that the first two phases of voting were peaceful.
Secondly, the factors on which people voted this time will be known on October 8, the day of counting of votes. Media reports clearly indicate that issues like development, employment opportunities, price hike of essential commodities and the state of law and order are the major factors influencing the voter turnout this time, especially for the youth.
The two regional parties, the National Conference and the PDP, have focused their attention on the demand for restoration of statehood to Jammu and Kashmir and restoration of special status under Article 370. The extent to which various political parties gain popular support across Jammu and Kashmir will be reflected in the election results. The Jammu region and the Kashmir Valley region will witness different political perspectives. While the BJP has dominated Jammu in recent times, the Congress, NC and PDP are the major parties in the Kashmir Valley.
Third, many smaller parties and independent candidates are seen competing with the major parties in this election. Their performance is being closely watched. Will the tradition of national parties and major regional parties holding power continue or will newcomers make an impact on the election? This is also an indication of the dynamism in the politics of Jammu and Kashmir.
30/09/2024
Prof. Sandeep Shastri