Constituency redistribution: A threat to balance?
15/03/2025
Prof. Sandeep Shastri
The re-delimitation of Lok Sabha seats after 2026 has led to a conflict between the ruling BJP at the Centre and its political opponents in South India. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, who feels that the upcoming re-delimitation exercise is a burden on the southern states, has called a meeting of all political parties in Tamil Nadu to discuss the issue. He has also written to some Chief Ministers.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in an attempt to ease the concerns in South India over the re-delimitation, has said that the number of Lok Sabha seats in any southern state will not decrease even a single day after the re-delimitation of seats based on population. He has assured that the southern states will get their fair share of the increase in the number of seats. However, the controversy has not subsided as this statement is being interpreted in many ways.
The process of redistribution of Lok Sabha seats in the country will begin after the completion of the next census. This redistribution process will have a significant impact on the creation of new Lok Sabha seats, which will have a direct impact on the representation of various states in the future Lok Sabha. The redistribution of seats is expected to take place after 2026, as per the 84th Amendment to the Constitution brought in 2002.
The census that was supposed to be held in 2021 was not held due to the Covid pandemic, and it has not been held even today. Thus, after the census work is completed, the work of demarcating the constituencies will begin after the formation of the Redistricting Commission. The implications of the redistricting exercise will be significant due to the changes in the demographic profile of the country, the percentage of the population of the states in the total population of the country.
The last redistricting exercise took into account the newly available population data, but it did not change the number of constituencies assigned to each state. The boundaries of the constituencies within the states were redrawn. If the next redistricting committee conducts redistricting based on the upcoming census, will it take into account the changes in the population size of each state or will it maintain the status quo as it was done in the past?
Based on the 2011 Census, there has been a major change in the population size of each state. If the redistribution is done based on the 2011 Census data, there will be changes in the number of seats allocated to the states. The number of seats held by seven states will increase, the number of seats held by 10 states (plus Delhi and Union Territories) will remain the same, and the number of seats in the remaining states will decrease.
If the redistribution is done based on the 2011 census, the southern, eastern and northeastern states of the country will lose a total of 25 Lok Sabha seats. The northern, western and central Indian states will gain. Tamil Nadu may lose eight seats. The next worst-hit states will be Kerala (down 5 seats), Andhra Pradesh (3), and Odisha (2). Karnataka, Meghalaya, Manipur, Goa, Telangana, West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, and Punjab will lose one seat each. Uttar Pradesh may gain seven seats, Bihar and Rajasthan 5 seats each, Madhya Pradesh 4 seats, Maharashtra 2 seats, and Jharkhand and Haryana 1 seat each. If the redistribution of Lok Sabha seats is done based on population alone, the balance of power will be disturbed, and the Hindi-speaking states in the northern, central, and western parts of the country will gain even more importance.
The newly constructed Parliament House has a seating capacity of 888 members. Thus, there is an argument that when the number of Lok Sabha constituencies is increased to 888, there will be no reduction in the number of seats in the southern and eastern states. If we look at it from a numerical point of view, this argument may seem true. It is true that the Union Home Minister has said that no state will see a reduction in the number of its Lok Sabha seats. But when the 888 seats are redistributed on the basis of population (based on the 2011 census data), the percentage of seats in the states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Goa, Manipur will decrease. The percentage of seats in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand will increase from the amount they have now.
When the process of redistribution of Lok Sabha seats is initiated, there should be a discussion on whether each state should be based solely on its share of the total population of the country or whether other factors should be considered to achieve a balance. If population alone is used as the basis for redistribution of seats, there is no doubt that the share of seats in the total Lok Sabha seats of many states in South India and East India will be reduced.
The total number of seats in the Lok Sabha can be increased. Then the number of seats in all the states can increase. But the question here is how the proportion of seats in the states will change. If the redistribution of seats is done on the basis of population alone, the balance in the federal system will definitely change. Then the political dominance of some regions of the country will increase further. In this way, the basic structure of the federal system will change.