Why Karnataka’s political pilots can’t avoid turbulence
Karnataka politics has become familiar with tumult. Over the last four decades, less than two years after every new government has settled into office with fanfare, it has gotten caught in crossfires regarding visible misgovernance, allegations of corruption, waves of political instability or challenges to leadership. It has often been a combination of these factors.
Siddaramaiah’s 16-month-old government faces multi-track challenges despite being given a clear mandate by voters. The same happened to Ramakrishna Hegde in the mid-1980s, followed by three Congress chief ministers within a span of five years (1989-94), which were succeeded by Janata Dal coming to power and witnessing frequent splits (1994-99). All of this was followed by a Congress government headed by S M Krishna (1999-2004) that went into a tailspin with brigand Veerappan’s abduction of veteran actor Rajkumar.
This was followed by coalition instability (2004-08) and a BJP government with three chief ministers that had to manage with the support of independents (2008-13). This made way for a Congress government headed by Siddaramaiah (2013-18) and a return to another five-year phase that saw three chief ministers heading coalition governments, and a majority by switchovers (2018-23). Now, there seem to be portents of history repeating itself.
Governance in the state seems to have taken a backseat with the chief minister being engulfed by the Mysore Urban Development Authority land allotment scandal and the government having to answer several uncomfortable questions on a range of other issues. The CM is clearly on the backfoot, attempting to stave off one googly after another. Some would argue that it is a matter of time before the Congress would need to consider a leadership change.
The timing of such a change is the focus of immense speculation. The party would clearly not want to give the impression that it has buckled to opposition pressures. It would build a case for a new leadership as a mid-course change of guard to take forward the promises made in the last election and ensure a well-crafted `image make-over’ as it completes the rest of its term. Yet, there are a spate of internal challenges the party would need to resolve. An honourable exit for the present incumbent would be the first.
In his second term as chief minister, Siddaramaiah represents a style of politics uniquely different from those who have had their political career within the framework of the Congress. Siddaramaiah also represents the backward castes and as an Ahinda (a Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits) leader, has a great deal of traction in the wider politics that the Congress is pursuing at a national level. This factor was key to his return to the chief ministership in 2023. While the developments in the last few months have clearly dented his standing, the party would need to strategise with caution before taking any action.
Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar would see himself as the natural successor—given his backing out of the race in 2024, a lot would depend on the stand the Congress high command chooses to take. While many state leaders of the Congress have made it clear that they see themselves as potential candidates, it could well be political posturing for a better position in the event of missing out on the leadership if there were to be any change. The stand of the incumbent chief minister on the matter will also be crucial.
If the ruling Congress faces its own dilemmas, the leading opposition party, the BJP, appears to be a divided house. It appears not to have recovered from its defeat in the 2023 assembly polls. While the Lok Sabha polls saw it get a majority of the seats in the state, it was nowhere to its 2019 numbers. The factions within the state unit are out in the open and the BJP central leadership appears to be unwilling to step in and broker peace.
Its alliance with the JDS is yet another matter of concern for the BJP state unit. While it may have helped keep the Congress at bay in the Lok Sabha polls, in the long run, this alliance could well undercut the BJP. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll study in 2024 indicated that while the BJP improved its vote share among the Lingayats and the non-dominant backward castes, it did not do as well as it anticipated among the other dominant caste, the Vokkaligas.
There is also a growing impression at the state level that Kumaraswamy appears to have gained more political visibility as compared to his BJP counterparts in the Union council of ministers. The Old Mysore region would see a lot of political adjustments and negotiations in the event of the BJP-JDS alliance continuing.
The crucial by-elections to the state legislature that is soon due will be a crucial test for the ruling party as well as the opposition alliance. While the results may not dramatically alter the respective party position in the house, it could well indicate a churning in state politics. Karnataka politics is truly at a crossroads and a critical juncture. The road ahead seems strewn with many agonising `ifs’ and tantalising `buts’. October could well see major developments in the politics of the state.
(Views are personal)
Sandeep Shastri
Political scientist, National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network
Director (academics) at the NITTE Education Trust