Will the tension of state politics lift?

It has been almost six weeks since the Lok Sabha election results were declared. There has been much debate on whether a party performed better in the Lok Sabha elections or whether it claimed victory with the support of its alliance partner. There is also the question of whether the fact that the opposition is strong in the Lok Sabha means that it will do better there. But this article looks at how the results in Karnataka will affect politics there.

Through what lens can the Karnataka results be analyzed? None of the major parties in the state can claim to have achieved a landslide victory. The voters have created a situation where the major parties in the state have to respond with restraint. The voters of the state have voted this time too, in line with their previous stance of seeing the Assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections as separate.

The state has had three assembly elections since 2013. The Lok Sabha elections were held a year after the assembly elections in the state. Whenever a party or alliance comes to power in the state after the assembly elections, the opposition party has won a majority of seats in the subsequent Lok Sabha elections. This is also true for the 2023 assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But the important thing here is that the similarities end there.

The BJP's seat tally fell in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Although the BJP won the most Lok Sabha seats in the state, it has lost eight seats this time compared to the 25 seats it won last time. The JDS, which had won one seat last time, had won two seats this time as a political partner of the BJP, but it suffered a major setback as it could not retain its stronghold of Hassan. The Congress party, although it can claim a nine-fold increase in its seat tally, could not win the number of seats it had hoped to win as the ruling party in the state (more seats than any other in the state). Despite the increase in the Congress's seats, the Congress won less than a third of the total seats in the state. For these reasons, the decision of the voters in the state has disappointed all parties.

Let us first look at the Congress. The ruling party, Congress, sought votes on the basis of the five guarantee schemes it had implemented in the state. It can be argued that the party won nine seats because of the guarantees. However, the results made the differences in the party openly visible. Many ministers were unable to ensure that the party candidate won in the constituencies entrusted to them. Not only that, many ministers were unable to give the party candidate a lead in the assembly constituency they represented. The demand to hold them accountable for the setbacks grew stronger. A year ago, when the Congress-led government was formed in the state, the party high command had created a post of Deputy Chief Minister and prepared a power-sharing formula. It was said then that the post of Deputy Chief Minister should be the only one. Although there were talks that the leadership of the government should change after the Lok Sabha elections, the result is such that no leader can claim to have won.

Those who were unhappy about not getting a place in the state cabinet are now demanding a cabinet reshuffle. However, the party high command seems to have managed to broker a truce by sending a signal that the status quo should continue and focus more on governance. However, the behind-the-scenes infighting continues. A post-poll survey conducted by Lokneeti has found that the Congress has not been able to win a significant share of the votes of the non-dominant castes among the OBC communities.

The BJP was expecting more seats than it has now won. Winning more seats in the state has brought some relief to the party's state leadership. However, internal differences in the party have resurfaced. There have been demands within the party that it should be held accountable for the setback in the constituencies where voting was held in the second phase of the state (where the BJP is strong). Although the BJP has been able to regain what it lost in the Lingayat community votes, the Lokneeti survey has shown that the BJP is lagging behind the Congress in winning the Scheduled Community votes. The party needs to start preparing now for the next assembly elections. The party needs to work as a constructive opposition in the state assembly and legislative council. The party leaders need to work with preparation.

JDS party leaders have been given an important portfolio in the Narendra Modi-led cabinet. It remains to be seen how the party will utilize this and how it will strengthen its base in the state.

However, the internal strife within the party and the embarrassing situation faced by the JDS leadership during the elections seem to have affected the outcome of the elections. Will the JDS leadership spend its time enjoying the happiness it has received as part of the power-sharing deal at the Centre or will it prioritize rebuilding the party in the state? Will the party emerge from the controversies surrounding the youth of the party's leading family?

The upcoming by-elections to three assembly constituencies in the state will grab political attention. Until the next election battle, political parties will focus on fixing the internal problems that arose due to the Lok Sabha elections.

18/07/2024
Prof. Sandeep Shastri